This Briefing, including any position ideas, is for and educational purposes only.
1. Market Environment
It didn’t take much — bonds with a mini reversal —> HD rallies 3.25%
Mid-day OpenAI news drop forces a high volume washout — right to Checkpoint target of ~600 on SMH
AVGO -4.4% — System discipline validated
2. Calendar
Quiet on economic reports, earnings
3. Market Signals
QQQ
Qs pulled down on AI trade break
~745 price support held — first red 4H candle suggests unfinished business
4H chart:
SMH
Pre-market Checkpoint — System noted air pocket below 615 —> swift decline to ~600
Test of 2H Kumo — back below mid support line
2H chart:
BTC
Higher consolidation above 84.7K fails followed by bigger ~83K support
System identified support 83-81K (Kijun) —> deeper Kijun test needs a swift recovery above 83K to maintain bullish structure
Daily chart:
4. Active Positions
TSLA
Test of ~370-365 System support holds — solid bounce
Weekly chart:
HD (Oct 390C)
System entry on early weakness @ 2.70
TLT reversed to upside —> HD leverage triggered resulting in 3.5X move
Execution plan —> 60% profits, hold 40% firm | Oct 390P hedge sitting 1:1 now
4H chart:
5. Incubation
NUGT
System Insight
System was premature on HD a couple of weeks ago with yields in clear up trend. This time identified TLT | HD signals (HD held well above lows yesterday) for optimal setup pre-market.