This Briefing, including any position ideas, is for and educational purposes only.
1. Market Environment
SMH (+4%) signal last week — AI heads agree to ‘pacing’ last weekend —> SMH contained ~540, weekly reversal
BTC breaks 83K
META leads QQQ
Yields | Oil back off highs
2. Calendar
3. Market Signals
QQQ
Last weeks green reversal — triggers Monday gap above upper channel
Surge runs toward top of Weekly B Band | all-time highs
Resistance — ~745
Support — ~735–740
Weekly chart:
SMH
AI trade enters air pocket as AI slowdown fears — priced in
Next resistance — ~610 | middle channel line
Support — ~580
Daily chart:
BTC
Strong Monday pre-market move through ~83K regime change zone
Ran straight to upper Weekly B Band — next resistance zone
Upper Kumo ~93K — next target
Support — ~83K breakout zone
Daily chart:
4. Active Positions
HD
Value money pulled back to AI / Tech, while rates remain near highs
Not a premier System position
Execution Plan —> Hold
Daily chart:
TSLA (365 entry)
Upside follow through on last week weekly candle — closed right at Weekly Kijun
Major reaction zone above — ~395–415
Next target — ~396
Support — ~370
Covering strategy — into Q3 #s
Daily chart:
5. Incubation
COST (post ER)
System Insight
Recent insights noted market has been discounting a confluence of headwinds — rates, oil, AI slowdown talk. Yet downside reaction was easily holding July lows. Signals trigger moves.