This Briefing, including any position ideas, is for and educational purposes only.
1. Market Environment
SMH tests lower B band — contains ~540 confirming market has priced in slowdown risks
HD firms up as 10 yr yields look for a high ahead of FOMC
FED hike odds remain at ~80% — System in disagreement.
2. Calendar
3. Market Signals
QQQ
Similar to Semis, lower B band | Kumo contained non-panic selling today
AI slowdown = cash flow / earnings increase to hyper scalers and most of S&P 500
Resistance — 715–718 | 725
Daily chart:
SMH
Textbook test of lower B band, with marginal lower low vs August
Support zone — today’s low —> washout to ~520 (on negative FED reaction) remains viable
Resistance ~552–560
Daily chart:
TSLA
Support ~353 — rising Kijun
Resistance ~360–365
Potential System entry ~365–370
Daily chart:
BTC
Convergence of rising Kijun / tightening lower B band ~76K — key support zone
Expecting BTC to be active into FED, along with Gold
Daily chart:
4. Active Positions
HD (Oct 340C / 320C)
System trigger to scale-up via Oct 320C @ 6.20 / 311.50
Execution Plan —> Hold / evaluate hedge ~315+
Daily chart:
AVGO | AVL (~342 entry)
Gapped down with Semis
System error to hold into weekend with shaky daily candles
Potential stop tomorrow into FED.
Daily chart:
5. Incubation
TSLA | COST (post ER)
System Insight
Wall of worry has grown to significant levels with market dealings with oil, rates and AI spend peak. The latter may be a net positive as AI $ will flow back into Corp America / non-semis Big tech, while AI stocks have been pricing in slowdown.