1. Market Environment
SMH | AI trade opens Q3 weak -5.4%. Gold firm after Warsh’s comments at ECB conference.
2. Calendar
TSLA Production numbers due tomorrow | Jobs report friday looms important for gold
3. Market Signals
QQQ
~735 resistance holds —> retest of ~725–718 (Kijun)
—> watch consol in this range
Daily chart:
SMH
Volatility continues —> back to upper trendline
~617–620 key support zone
Daily chart:
BTC
BTC brief break of 60.8K to 61.3K after-hours —> reversal back to 2H Kijun ~59.5K
System on watch for reversal signal
Daily chart:
TSLA
Cover zone ~430–450 objective hit ahead of Q2 #s | top of daily Boll band
Historically —> stock has sold strength into production #s, stock has run ~60+ points in past few sessions
Daily chart:
4. Active Position
NKE
Post earnings trade played out — buy the news open +5%
Execution Plan — hold July 45C ‘lotto’
LULU
Defended ~112 support —> looking for ~120 Kijun test
Execution Plan —> holding common
Medium term target ~160
NUGT
Early strength faded with gold
Important decision into Jobs report — either stop NUGT or GLD put hedge
XAU-USD spot daily chart:
Defended 2H Kijun after-hours —> important hours ahead
COST
System trigger —> 50% entry into Sep 960C @ 16.50
5. Incubation
BITX
TBD
System Insight
Major whipsaws continue. Important to identify strong technical setups (eg META into today) as seeing a lot of big moves.