Economy | Geopolitical
Market got close to System objectives on SMH | QQQ before covering into the close —> foreshadowing strong MU earnings and +15% reaction
Oil (WTI) — ~70, close to unwinding entire #Iran war move
Calendar
Inflation report Thursday — potential for some noise —> MU should dominate
Notables
QQQ
Bottomed ~704 vs 700 objective —> likely gap back above Kijun on MU/semis
4H Kumo support held —> always important to browse timeframes for potential support areas
4H chart:
SMH
Bottomed ~606 vs ~600 objective —> printing above 2H Kijun A/H (640+)
Expecting to see more imprecise Kijun tests —> ie over/under shoots — as Street continues to evolve its ‘game’
Look for consolidation above ~640 to signal follow-through
Daily chart:
BTC
Further breakdown today — important marginal lower low —> remains structurally weak and vulnerable
Execution Plan —> BITX entry with 2H close above 62K (BTC) with ~2% stop | 57K similar terms
PCE report tomorrow likely next catalyst
Daily chart:
TSLA
System objective ~375 hit today —> didn’t like August premium structure
Evaluate tomorrow
Daily chart:
Active Position
NKE
Marginal lower low today —> more weakness as earnings approach
System miss —> hedge renewal
Execution Plan — hold July 45C core | evaluate hedge on bounce c
LULU
Follow-through on yesterday’s strength —> increasingly expect M&A chatter to emerge
Key test tomorrow —> was today’s move oversold bounce or signal
Execution Plan —> holding common
Watch list | Notables
TSLA
BITX
GLD | NUGT
—> Gold on watch pre-market tomorrow
System Insight
System was expecting buy-news on Thursday inflation report —> MU already confirms. Key moment for Gold and BTC.