Economy | Geopolitical
System analysis — AVGO report on radar as short catalyst —> confirmed
Considered re-entry of SMH short at the open —> note sold off 15 points yet reversed within open 1H candle — Street psychological warfare to scare off shorts into AVGO report.
BTC — below major channel support —> major 66K–60K washout reaction zone
Weekly chart:
Repeat of last night’s Briefing — bottom of monthly B band sits at 60K — possible break below 66K to 60K where stops are cleaned out across Crypto —> with June monthly close back inside LT channel
Oil (WTI) — status quo geopolitical — daily counter signals —> oil remains in danger zone where a material deterioration will cause a gap above Kijun
QQQ — new high on SMH —> retracing AH on AVGO | Semis pullback
2H | upper channel support — ~737
TSLA — run to prior ~430 support —> now resistance — backed off towards Weekly Kijun
—> evaluate into end of week
Calendar
LULU report — tomorrow (AMC)
Jobs report Friday — normally a positive reaction —> especially if tomorrow holds weak on good volume
Active Position
NKE
Oil remains drag on retail
2H Kumo (bottom) support held —> important to reclaim Daily Kijun into end of week
2H chart:
Execution Plan — hold July 45C core | June hedge
LULU (common)
Deeper retest to ~123.50 —> green inverted hammer close on Daily
Like NKE —> test of 2H Kumo held
Yesterday’s Briefing: “Ahead of earnings — prefer to see caution in tape —> counter signal” —> good signal today
After deep test today —> want to see follow-thru on today’s green hammer into earnings
2H chart:
Execution Plan —> holding common into report. On good strength may add 115P (weekly) —> System protection
System target ~155–170
Watch list | Notables
BTC
Covered as above
GLD | NUGT
Oil continues to weigh on Gold —> uptick on weak Semis after-hours
—> convergence zone shifts to ~415–420 remains
~410 first resistance
2H chart:
TSLA
Assess into end of week
JPM
Whipsaw potential —> ~295 support has held, back over ~300
—> possible re-entry
System Insight
Common Street decoy setup with AVGO. Upgrades into report — multi-day breakout towards ~500. Early weakness bought at the open to further confuse —> trap door A/H. System flagged AVGO last week. Even though no entry — good to be in the right neighborhood