Economy | Geopolitical
Oil (WTI) — +7% at one point on talk of negotiation break down —> false signals in every direction
—> WTI backed off highs closing within Daily Kumo resistance
QQQ — almost tagged top of Daily B band —> odds increasing of interim top
Daily :
Calendar
AVGO LULU reports this week
—> next test of SMH sentiment
Active Position
NKE
Tested 2H Kijun today
Support — gap-fill | 44.75–45 zone
2H chart:
Execution Plan — hold July 45C core | June hedge
TSLA
Breakdown below Weekly Kijun (~418) —> important test of uptrend line | Daily Kijun convergence ahead (~409)
—> continued System patience on any re-entry
Daily chart:
JPM
System stop trigger today —> early failure to reclaim 299+
—> 4 point loss on July 315C
As mentioned prior —> System error in not adding hedge on Kijun break to 310. Perfect hedge scenario
Will maintain on watch
LULU (common)
Bullish consolidation ahead of Thursday report
Air pocket setup above Kijun (~135-6) into Thursday report
—> evaluate price action into report, potential weekly 120P hedge
ST support — ~131
Daily chart:
System medium term target ~155–170
Watch list | Notables
BTC
Daily Kumo support failure —> risk to 66K
Structure has been weakening since regime change failure
GLD | NUGT
TSLA
AVGO (short)
System Insight
The Street’s objectives at interim highs is to attract every lost discretionary performance chasing dollar into equities and calls — and to create mass distrust from failed bearish bets — right on the cusp of a correction.