Economy | Geopolitical
More indications of imminent Iran peace deal | AMD strong multi-year guidance fuel new highs in SPY | QQQ
Oil (WTI) —> closed on Kijun
WTI Daily chart:
—> Holding 14 points above April low
News of Iran peace deal —> expect sustained decline thru Kijun
QQQ
AI trade continues parabolic move —> led by INTC | AMD
—> Back to extreme overbought
Correction zone —> ~682 gap-fill
With Iran peace deal appearing to be close —> watch for financial media narrative pivot to ‘next market problem’
—> Rebuild the ‘wall of worry’
Position updates | Trades
NKE
Reclaim of 1H Kijun —> signs recovery strength
—> further oil weakness — next consumer catalyst
Execution plan —> hold | option to roll hedge value forward — evaluate tomorrow.
TSLA
Underperformance most of day —> early retest of decision zone (~385-388)
—> PM recovery — short of weekly high.
Daily chart:
Execution plan —> ongoing watch to close cover —> scale position back up
Watch list | Notables
GLD / NUGT
Last Friday’s incubator discussion —> identified a developing reversal structure in Gold before this week’s reaction
GLD +3%
NUGT +15%
Despite gap —> GLD at major convergence zone (~430)
—> trend line | Kumo bottom |Kijun
Upside resolution = larger than today’s move
BTC
Major decision zone (~82–84K) —> unable to match Tech strength
—> backed off full Kijun test
JPM
Strong move to top of compressing Daily band
System Insight
High-value asymmetric setups continue emerging outside crowded AI momentum positioning.