Economy | Geopolitical
Oil (WTI) — +2.8% on renewed Iran noise —> market reacted to Iran headline
—> aligned with expected seasonal weakness
QQQ — retrace trade triggered ~674.50 —> held 30 min Kijun (~669)
System decision to cover after recovery to ~673
Result —> May 670–660P spread @ net 1.90
—> near complete risk mitigation
2H chart:
—> ST support rises to 660–665
AMD — (–20 pts) —> repeat of prior Monday. Friday closing strength —> sold Monday open
No system trigger for entry today —> no case for entry tomorrow before report tomorrow
Position updates | Trades
NKE
Hedge (2) monetization triggered —> profits taken on May 45P hedge
10:4 protection ratio remains with 42.5P hedge —> if bottoming failure
—> potential trigger to scale-up core long position
TSLA
Decision zone (~385-388) tested and held today
—> Daily cloud bottom aligned with 385 level
Daily chart:
—> 408–410 = next monetization zone (Daily upper band / Kumo top)
No change to execution plan:
408–410 —> sell 50% core (Jun 400Cs)
—> maintain protected (covered) runner
Watch list | Notables
GLD / NUGT
Full reversal attempt —> failed
System —> no entry trigger
BTC testing regime change zone —> added catalyst for gold weakness
GLD | NUGT —> continuous watch for long entry
System Insight
First signal — seasonal volatility window (post Mag 7 —> pre NVDA) now active
—> geopolitical headlines / oil back in focus short term (absent Iran progress)