Economy | Geopolitical
Sunday, 8pm update: futures show mild decline on further Iran noise, press dinner incident.
Oil light gains.
Same theme all week – Seasonal flow overrides Iran noise —> can reverse any time.
Semis —> historic extremes.
Oil WTI (93.11) —> faded from weekly high —> closed just above Daily Kijun.
VIX —> bearish weekly candle —> projects to 14 area implying more equity strength – medium term.
Earnings next week:
SBUX —> standout setup.
—> margin improvement evident at retail level
Position updates | Trades
NKE
Failure at ~47 / downtrend line —> higher oil = near-term headwind
44.20 —> important support Monday
Failure —> hedge value acceleration protects core positions —> possible profit taking
LLY
Tested Kijun Thursday —> immediate fade. Warning for OE trouble.
‘Week 2’ prescriptions miss —> likely OE-driven noise.
Profit zone —> 960 / top of upper daily band
—> Exit or cover before earnings (Apr 30)
TSLA
System discipline —> held firm to execution plan
—> 50% entry at Thursday open (June 400C) @ 15.25 (low 13.80)
—> Closed just above Daily Kijun.
—> More discipline Friday —> patient for Monday to scale-up, sitting just above Kijun
SMH
Stop exit stronger than expected —> 3.45
Loss: 1,170 (2 contracts)
Thursday chart —> clear exit opportunity missed (profitable) on ~13 point retrace —> 30 min / trend line support
Watch list | Notables
SBUX
Multi-year consolidation —> bullish upward consolidation (weekly chart)
—-> Will evaluate hedged strategy into earnings
BTC – holding ~78K zone —> Weekly candle holding bullish
System Insight
Early entries —> must transition to break-even positioning (Wed–Thurs)
If failures ≈ breakeven —> long-term edge compounds